Winter Is Coming, but How Cold Will It Be in Australia This Year?

The mercury is dropping all around Australia and winter is coming. But just how cold will this winter be? Unlike many countries around the world, winters tend to be pretty mild in Australia. Sure, we break out the North Face puffers and huddle around gas column heaters at the pub, but rarely do we have to deal with sub zero temperatures or snow like other parts of the world.

So with winter barely a month away, we thought we’d dig into what the experts are saying about just how cold the temperatures will get in 2024.

Long-range winter forecast in Australia

To get a sense of how this winter is shaping up, let’s head on over to our first port of call – the Bureau of Meteorology.

The BOM’s long-range forecast overview for May through July this year suggests that both maximum and minimum temperatures for most of Australia have an increased likelihood (over 80%) of being unusually warm. These unusually high temperatures are defined as the warmest 20% of May to July days and nights from 1981 to 2018.

The BOM’s rain forecast predicts a drier May (although that’s certainly not the case in NSW right now) with a 60-80% chance of rainfall being below the median for most of Australia. The forecast average across the three months from May through July is likely to be below median for parts of southern, eastern and northern Australia. But there are equal chances of there being either above or below median rainfall in parts of Western WA, southern NT, most of SA, southern QLD (away from the east) and western NSW, over the next three months.

So, to summarise, according to the BOM’s long-range predictions, this winter will likely be warmer and drier than most.

It was also reported earlier in April by the BOM that the tropical Pacific Ocean had returned to ENSO-neutral, meaning neither El Niño nor La Niña are active.

As the ABC pointed out, last year’s winter in Australia was also warmer than average and brought the national temperature to 1.5°C above the 1961-1990 average. If these predictions from the BOM are anything to go by – this winter could do the same.

Lead Image Credit: iStock/HBO